I cannot remember a time when the tax regime in Britain was in a position of such flux. As we know the cost of the banking crisis and the recession has cost the government, or at least UK plc dearly. There is a huge deficit to be made up, exacerbated by the futile policy of reducing VAT from 17.5% to 15% for thirteen months. There is talk that after the election whoever is in power will have to raise VAT to 20%. There is not much we can do to mitigate this in advance, and from the Government's point of view, indirect taxation on sales is inescapable. We are all paying VAT on a daily basis, and we have to hope that any currently exempt or zero-rated goods and services will not have a charge imposed.
At these sorts of times and particularly in advance of an election the parties find themselves painted into a corner. Are they honest and admit that services will have to be cut and that charges will have to be made in the NHS and in education, or do they keep quiet and get on with doing what they perceive is necessary when in power after May (we still assume the election will be in May)? Will taxation be raised even more after May?
Regular readers of this blog will know that my view is that increases in taxation are counter-productive because they encourage dishonesty. I don't like it, but that is the reality, especially in the cash businesses HMRC hate, but frankly are not equipped to do anything about. Those professionally represented businesses have a close eye kept on them by the likes of us, but many who are not and particularly those who are not even registered at all (the black economy) are very hard to catch. This does not bode well for the immediate future because we then have a division between the honest and highly-taxed legitimate law-abiding business and the dishonest who are better off because they do not pay their taxes and are robbing HMRC and therefore all the rest of us doing our best to stay on the straight and narrow..
So, what do we professionals do? There is some tax planning which seems tempting in terms of the 2009 Pre-Budget Report. We know that the rate of income tax is going up to 50% for taxable income over £150,000. There is also a withdrawal of personal allowances on income over £100,000, which means that there is a marginal rate of 60% for incomes just over £100K and when you add in National Insurance the situation seems scary. What do we tell our clients to do? Have their bonuses now (unless they are in the bankers' trap), have them much later, or leave the country?
Well of course, it might be an idea for owner-managers to pay themselves dividends at 32.5% instead of 42.5% after April if they are in that sort of league. It might be sensible for spouses and partners to equalise their incomes to reduce rates, but frankly those sorts of arrangements may well be in place, especially as the income-shifting legislation is currently on the shelf because it was impractical and ill-thought out. However, being impractical and ill-thought out has not always prevented legislation from being introduced, and there is still the spectre of perhaps a higher charge on dividends in general or an imposition of NIC.
Our clients should talk to their financial advisers in view of the changes to the pension regime from April and the further restrictions on tax relief on premiums paid.
The whole point is that I cannot remember a period of so much uncertainty in the tax world. In past years we have planned ahead, but now we can and must take action on many fronts before April, because we know not what is round the corner. Our planning may not help our clients after April, but we must talk to them to see what we can do now.
From a business point of view, the one thing worse than a recession is the inability to plan ahead, because who knows what tax costs are round the corner? That is why I wish the party in power could be more candid about its general plan on tax increases. I wish the opposition would say that whilst it cannot reduce the proposed increases in the short term it will not invent any new taxes and that it will cut services, so that at least we know where we stand. The election is badly needed in terms of politics, but it is getting in the way of all our lives in terms of knowing where we stand or fall. How can a business make plans if it has no projection on costs?